Michael Tubbs, who grew up in Stockton, California, near the birthplace of artificial intelligence, Silicon Valley, believes the rapid advancements in technology will drastically alter the lives and employment of Americans. Despite the nation’s wealth, Tubbs sees the United States as marked by poverty and scarcity, a view he shared in a conversation with CNN.
As a child, Tubbs’ experience of having an often-absent mother who was continuously working spurred him to contemplate ways the richest country in the world could alleviate poverty. His unique approach toward this societal challenge took shape when he became mayor of Stockton in 2016.
In 2019, Tubbs spearheaded an experimental universal basic income program in his hometown, distributing unconditional cash payments to residents. With artificial intelligence expected to disrupt the job market significantly, potentially leading to widespread unemployment, the International Monetary Fund warned early in the year that up to 40% of global jobs could be affected.
Supporters of universal basic income, like Tubbs, suggest that measures should be implemented before the rise of artificial intelligence potentially replaces human workers. Stockton’s basic income trial began in 2019, with $500 monthly payments handed out to 125 randomly selected low-income residents for two years, with no strings attached regarding how they should spend the money or whether they held a job.
The early findings from the experiment were promising, indicating recipients improved their employment prospects and financial stability while experiencing benefits to their mental and physical health.
Current Market Trends: Universal Basic Income (UBI) has been gaining traction globally as more governments and organizations experiment with the concept. The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated interest in UBI as a means of providing financial assistance to people who lost jobs or income due to economic disruptions. Additionally, the rise in gig economy jobs, which often lack the benefits and stability of traditional employment, has contributed to a growing discussion on how to ensure economic security for all workers.
Forecasts: As automation and artificial intelligence continue to advance, it is forecasted that UBI could become more prevalent as a proposed solution to offset job displacement. Discussions around UBI are expected to become increasingly prominent in political debates as well, especially in countries experiencing significant technological disruptions in their labor markets.
Key Challenges or Controversies: Implementing UBI at a large scale presents significant challenges. Critics of UBI argue that it could dissuade recipients from seeking employment, could lead to inflation as a result of increased spending power without corresponding increases in the supply of goods and services, and could place immense strain on government budgets. There is also debate about how UBI programs should be funded, with suggestions including higher taxes, particularly on the wealthy, or the introduction of new taxes on automation and technology companies that benefit most from displacement of labor.
Advantages: Advocates of UBI highlight several potential benefits such as reducing poverty and income inequality, simplifying welfare systems, giving individuals more freedom to choose work that is meaningful to them, and supporting those who do unpaid labor like caregiving. The potential psychological benefits, including reduced stress and improved mental health, can translate to positive societal impacts.
Disadvantages: On the flip side, UBI could be extremely costly and possibly unsustainable long-term. It may inadvertently reduce the incentive for work among recipients. The simplicity of UBI could lead to the elimination of other targeted benefits which might be more effective at addressing specific needs. Additionally, it may necessitate increase in taxes or reallocation of funding from other social programs.
For further information on Universal Basic Income and related discussions, the following links might be useful:
– Brookings Institution
– The Economist
– University of Oxford – Oxford Martin School
It’s important to evaluate UBI within the context of each society’s unique economic, social, and political landscapes, as the implications and effectiveness of UBI can vary greatly across different environments.