With the rise of AI, the pursuit of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) intensifies. Entrepreneurs like Elon Musk, renowned for their groundbreaking exploits in technology, play a crucial role in this endeavor. In a conversation on X Spaces, Musk offered his insights into the timeline for AGI to exceed human intelligence, shedding light on its potentials and the challenges lying ahead.
Projections for AGI Progression
During the dialogue, Musk voiced his conviction that AGI will outstrip human intelligence in the next year or two. When delving into the evolution of AI technology, he expressed with certainty, «If you define AGI as more intelligent than the most intelligent human, I believe it will likely happen next year, within two years.»
AGI denotes a form of AI capable of executing cognitive activities as competently as, or even better than, humans across a broad spectrum of domains. Its launch will signify a remarkable milestone in technological progress, presenting both opportunities and hurdles.
Constraints and Obstacles
Musk, the proprietor of X (previously Twitter) and AI company xAI, pointed out constraints faced when training his firm’s chatbot, Grok. Due to a shortage of cutting-edge chips, Musk disclosed that the training of the current Grok model demanded a whopping 20,000 Nvidia H100 GPUs, underlining the necessity for even more potent hardware in forthcoming iterations.
The scarcity of chips is not the solitary concern impeding AGI advancement. Musk also anticipates electricity availability to emerge as a pivotal element in the imminent period. This stance coheres with the views articulated by Microsoft co-founder, Bill Gates, who has emphasized the significance of sustainable energy sources in the advancement of AI.
A Unified Outlook
Musk’s predictions on AGI are not unfounded. He had previously shared a video excerpt of an interview with Raymond Kurzweil, an esteemed computer scientist and futurist, on the Joe Rogan podcast. Kurzweil posited that AI will attain intelligence at the human level by 2029, remarking, «I’m actually considered conservative. People believe it will happen next year or the year after.»
Expanding on this sentiment, Musk proposes that AI will probably surpass the intelligence of any individual human within the approaching year. Casting a gaze further into the future, he envisions AGI surpassing the collective intellect of all humans by 2029.
Ofte stilte spørsmål (FAQ)
Hva er Kunstig Generell Intelligens (AGI)?
Kunstig Generell Intelligens, eller AGI, henviser til en form for kunstig intelligens som besitter kognitive ferdigheter på nivå med, eller overgår, menneskelig intelligens på en rekke oppgaver og domener.
Når spår Elon Musk at AGI vil overgå menneskelig intelligens?
Elon Musk spår at AGI vil overgå menneskelig intelligens innen det kommende året eller to, og uttaler at hvis AGI defineres som mer intelligent enn den smarteste mennesket, vil dette sannsynligvis skje innen den tiden.
Hva er begrensningene for utviklingen av AGI?
Elon Musk peker på to sentrale begrensninger i utviklingen av AGI: en mangel på avanserte brikker som kreves for trening av AI-modeller, og fremtidens utfordring med å sikre tilstrekkelig tilgang på elektrisitet for å drive disse avanserte systemene.
Kjelder:
– space.com
– cnet.com
The source of the article is from the blog macnifico.pt