A recent survey conducted among AI researchers has validated the growing perception of the rapidly accelerating pace of AI development. The study, conducted by AI Impacts, a research firm based in San Francisco, analyzed survey responses from 2,778 AI researchers to gauge their perception of the advancements in the field. The results revealed a significant sense of acceleration across various AI-related tasks, indicating that AI experts are witnessing a remarkable shift in progress.
One of the most striking findings of the survey was the drastic revisions in forecasts for High-Level Machine Intelligence (HLMI) and Full Automation of Labor (FAOL) compared to previous predictions. The estimated arrival time for HLMI was projected to be 13 years earlier than forecast in 2022, while FAOL decreased by 48 years over the same period. This suggests that AI researchers believe that machines will be capable of outperforming humans in tasks and occupations much sooner than previously anticipated.
Interestingly, the study also revealed divergent opinions within the AI research community regarding the speed of AI development. While a small percentage of respondents advocated for slower development, a significant majority expressed a preference for accelerated progress. Those in favor of faster development outnumbered the slower faction, with 15.6% identifying as accelerationists and only 4.8% as doomers. At the same time, a larger proportion of respondents (29.9%) leaned towards somewhat slower development, with 26.9% favoring the current pace.
However, it is important to note that the survey participants possess expertise in AI specifically, rather than forecasting or other non-technical factors influencing the trajectory of AI. This distinction raises the need for caution when interpreting their perspectives on the future of AI. Nonetheless, their subjective beliefs give valuable insights into the desires, concerns, and predictions of those at the forefront of AI research.
As the field of AI continues to advance rapidly, these findings shed light on the collective expectations of AI researchers. It becomes increasingly apparent that an AI-driven automated world is approaching at an accelerated rate. While opinions on the optimal pace of AI development may vary, it is evident that the majority of AI experts are unsure whether the current trajectory of AI change is beneficial. The future of AI remains uncertain, but it is clear that the voices advocating for accelerated progress outweigh those advocating for caution.
The source of the article is from the blog coletivometranca.com.br