Over 50% of the global population will participate in elections this year. In 2024, an estimated 2 billion people worldwide will be casting their votes in elections of varying scales.
Will these elections be free from manipulation and interference? It seems rather unlikely. Certain countries are known to exploit and disrupt the democratic processes of others. For instance, China has been accused of using artificial intelligence-generated content to sow discord in the United States. By amplifying fake accounts, China aims to gather intelligence on American voters’ main fracture lines, thus fueling divisions and influencing public opinion. Microsoft alleges that China previously attempted an information campaign involving AI-generated content during Taiwan’s presidential elections in January, and it predicts China will utilize similar methods to sway elections in South Korea and India.
Similar to China, Russia is expected to meddle in the elections of its neighboring European Union states (and may have already begun doing so, as internet sites of at least three Dutch parties were attacked in light of the European Parliament elections in early June).
Given the exposed campaigns so far, it appears that China and Russia (and possibly Iran and North Korea) will employ the following tactics to disrupt free and democratic elections:
1. Social Media Manipulation – the easiest and most proven method. First deployed during the 2016 U.S. elections (through the Fakebook ad scheme – the Cambridge Analytica scandal). This method continues to be employed effectively across various global elections.
Additional Insights into Election Interference Worldwide
In addition to the previously mentioned tactics of election interference, there are several crucial aspects to consider in the growing landscape of global elections. Understanding the nuances of potential interference sheds light on the challenges faced in maintaining the integrity of democratic processes.
What are the most important questions regarding election interference, and how can they be addressed?
One critical question revolves around the role of technology in facilitating interference. As seen in past instances, countries like China and Russia have leveraged advanced technologies, including artificial intelligence, to manipulate social media and influence public opinion. Addressing this issue requires robust cybersecurity measures, international cooperation, and increased transparency in digital advertising.
Key Challenges and Controversies:
One of the key challenges associated with election interference is the difficulty in attribution. Determining the exact source of interference, especially when actors use sophisticated methods to mask their activities, poses a significant challenge for election authorities and cybersecurity experts. Controversies often arise when allegations of interference are made without conclusive evidence, leading to debates about the credibility of electoral outcomes.
Advantages and Disadvantages:
Advantages of addressing election interference include safeguarding the democratic principles of free and fair elections, preserving the credibility of electoral processes, and protecting the sovereignty of nations against external influence. On the other hand, the disadvantages lie in the potential escalation of tensions between countries, the erosion of trust in democratic institutions, and the proliferation of disinformation that undermines public discourse.
For further insights and resources on election interference around the world, you can explore the website of the International Foundation for Electoral Systems at ifes.org. This organization provides valuable research, reports, and tools aimed at promoting electoral integrity and combating interference in democracies globally.
By staying informed and actively engaging in discussions surrounding election interference, stakeholders can work towards mitigating the risks posed by external actors seeking to undermine the democratic process. Vigilance, transparency, and cooperation among nations are essential in safeguarding the fundamental tenets of democracy in an increasingly interconnected world.